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Saturday, November 10, 2018

The charts are flashing near-term buy signals in the bond market: Bank of America's Paul Ciana

The bond market's year in decline could round out with some relief.

Treasurys are setting up for a near-term pop as a level of support forms in the charts, according to Paul Ciana, chief global fixed income, currencies and commodities technical strategist at Bank of America.

"What we have on this chart is the potential for a double bottom forming right down here at these lows," Ciana said on CNBC's "Futures Now" on Thursday, referring to U.S. 30-Year Treasury bond futures.

Those long bond futures bottomed in early October, and made a higher low earlier this month.

"In fact, [Wednesday's] price action didn't break down to a new low to suggest that this isn't a possibility. We also had a bullish signal occur earlier in October at those lows," he added. "There's a possibility that the bond market could establish itself, here provided no new low occurs, and we could see a 3 to 5-point rally in the U.S. long-bond Treasury future."

Ciana has seen a similar set-up on the 5-year Treasury futures chart. He says a buy signal was triggered when prices bottomed out on Wednesday at October lows before moving higher, suggesting a double-bottom in formation.

"I think the tactical trade here is to be long [5-year U.S. note future] and U.S. Treasury futures. If we make a new low, you're stopped out but the potential for a rally here from the technical side as well as positioning and seasonals does suggest a bit of a pop," said Ciana.

However, for the longer term Ciana remains bearish on the bond market. He has a target of 3.45 percent in the 10-year yield and 3.75 percent in the 30-year. The 10-year yield above 3.45 percent would mark its highest level since April 2011.

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