Democrats hold slim leads in Florida's pivotal statewide races in the final push to Tuesday's midterm elections, a new poll released Monday found.
In a Senate race that will help to determine control of the chamber, incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson leads Republican Gov. Rick Scott by 4 percentage points, according to the NBC News/Marist survey. The Democrat garners 50 percent of support among likely voters, versus 46 percent for his GOP challenger. Four percent are undecided.
Democratic Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum leads the Florida gubernatorial contest by the same 4-percentage point margin over Republican former Rep. Ron DeSantis. Their leads fall within the 5 percentage point margin of error for the likely voter group.
The swing state survey bodes well for Democrats in a midterm in which they hope to challenge for control of both chambers of Congress and flip several governor's offices. A Nelson win would limit the GOP's potential to boost its 51-49 majority in the Senate — and President Donald Trump's ability to push his legislative priorities through Congress. In a state Trump won in 2016, only 44 percent of likely voters approve of the job the president is doing, while 51 percent disapprove, the poll found.
Meanwhile, a victory by Gillum, Florida's first black gubernatorial candidate, would change party control of the state governor's office. He could pursue policies such as the expansion of the federal and state Medicaid insurance program for low-income people.
Nelson and Gillum lead among independents, African-Americans, Latinos and women. Scott and DeSantis have an edge among whites, men and seniors.
In a state where nonpartisan forecasters consider six House races competitive, likely voters also narrowly favor Democratic control of Congress. Forty-nine percent say they prefer a legislative branch controlled by Democrats, while 45 percent would rather see GOP majorities.
When asked which party they are more likely to vote for in their own congressional districts, 51 percent of likely voters say the Democrat, while 46 prefer the Republican.
Democrats aim to pick up a net 23 GOP-held seats in the House to win a majority. They have a chance to flip multiple seats in Florida, including the South Florida 27th and 26th Districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential contest.
In the statewide races, likely voters have better views of the Democratic candidates than their Republican opponents. Forty-five percent say they have a favorable impression of Nelson, while 42 percent have an unfavorable view of him. The 76-year-old is seeking his fourth term in the Senate.
Meanwhile, 42 percent of likely voters see Scott favorably, versus 50 percent who view him unfavorably. The 65-year-old has served two terms as governor.
Forty-eight percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of Gillum, while 40 percent see him unfavorably. He has served as mayor of Tallahassee, the state capital, since 2014.
Forty-three percent have a favorable view of DeSantis, versus 45 percent who have an unfavorable impression. DeSantis was in Congress from 2013 until earlier this year, when he resigned amid his gubernatorial bid.
The live-caller NBC/Marist poll of Florida was conducted October 30 through November 1. The margin of error for all adults is +/- 3.8 percentage points. The margin of error for 917 registered voters is +/- 4.1 percentage points, and the margin of error for 595 likely voters is +/-5.0 percentage points.
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