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Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Dunkin' shares hit all-time high as Coke's Costa deal stokes takeover speculation

Once again, investors are pondering whether Dunkin' Brands will be sold.

Shares of the company spiked more than 3 percent Tuesday to an all-time high of $76.12 on speculation that the doughnut chain may be a potential acquisition target.

Dunkin' has long been considered a takeover prospect for JAB Holding, but now the brand could be a candidate for buyout by Coca-Cola, Don Bilson, analyst at Gordon Haskett, wrote in a research note Tuesday.

Dunkin Donuts was not immediately available for comment.

On Friday, Coke made the largest brand acquisition in its history, purchasing British coffee chain Costa for $5.1 billion. If Coke decided to continue to build its portfolio, Dunkin' would be an attractive candidate. With a market cap of $6.3 billion, Dunkin' would be a much more expensive target than Costa.

"Of course, Dunkin is breaking in a new CEO at the moment and we assumed back in July when this move was finalized that Dunkin was planning on remaining independent, at least for a while," he wrote. "We aren't in any rush to amend that thought, but Coke's purchase does up the ante in the coffee wars and as we see it, Dunkin is now a strategic asset that JAB and Coke both may want."

JAB has been steadily creating a coffee and breakfast empire over the last five years and Dunkin' would fit well in the company's portfolio. The privately held Luxembourg company is not a household name but its brands are. The company owns Keurig Green Mountain and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, and it acquired Panera Bread in a deal valued at about $7.5 billion last year.

McDonald's has made an effort to improve its coffee menu, adding lattes, cold brew and frozen coffee drinks, while Burger King has tried to woo customers with $1 coffee deals. To fight back, Dunkin has been shifting to make itself known for more than just its donuts. The brand has tested changing its name to just "Dunkin'" to show that it is a beverage-led brand and coffee leader.

Dunkin' shares are up more than 16 percent since January and more than 45 percent over the last year.

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