A second term for President Donald Trump is more likely than not, according to Goldman Sachs economists who analyzed the set-up for the 2020 election.
Incumbent presidents tend to have a "built-in advantage" of 5 to 6 percentage points in the popular vote, according to the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius. A stronger economy under the Trump administration is also adding to his edge headed into the 2020 election which Goldman predicts to be a "close call" leaning in favor of the incumbent.
"The advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him," Hatzius said in a note on Saturday.
Historically, incumbents finishing the first term for their party have received a greater share of the two-party vote than candidates whose party has already controlled the White House for two or more terms, according to Goldman. This "prominent" historic pattern would give Trump a "narrow advantage," Hatzius said.
More importantly, economic factors that can predict the election outcome including income, payrolls and GDP have all seen improvement since Trump took office, he said.
from Top News & Analysis https://cnb.cx/2Zd8hEt
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